海报新闻记者秦文金安报道1月19日晚间，“川酒六朵金花”之一的水井坊（600779.SH）公布了2025年经营预测，公司全年经营数据呈现明显调整趋势。 According to the announcement, the company is expected to achieve an operating profit of 3.038 billion yuan in 2025, down 42% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to the parent company was 392 million yuan, down 71% year-on-year.非归属于母公司净利润3.81亿元，同比也下降71%，三项主要财务指标均大幅下降。作为酒类行业剧烈调整期的典型例子，水井坊的业绩变化体现了行业共性压力和公司积极主动的战略决策的双重作用。 With respect toThe reasons for the decline in performance, Shui Jingfang said in the performance rep笔者认为，受宏观经济周期、产业调整周期和政策调整的综合影响，2025年，白酒行业将缓慢复苏，以传统商宴等核心消费场景为主，行业整体库存较高，终端销售承压。 2024年，水井坊实现全年营业利润52.17亿元，比上年增长5.32%。归属于上市公司股东的净利润达到13.41亿元，比上年增长5.69%，销售额和利润均创历史新高。进入2025年，水镜纺自2025年第二季度以来，销售额和净利润连续三个季度出现“双下滑”。特别是，这是公司近年来首次出现第四季度业绩表现突出的情况。根据2025年业务预测，预计2025年第四季度销售额to be approximately 690 million yuan (down 51.71% year-on-year), and net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be approximately 66 million yuan (down 69.44% year-on-year).但值得注意的是，2025年前三季度，水井坊通过即时零售、电商平台等新渠道实现销售收入约5.62亿元，同比增长71%，收入占比提升至近25%。海报新闻记者表示，从2025年开始，水镜坊将采取消除库存、降低购物送礼强度、优化渠道管理等措施，进一步稳定价值链和渠道的健康，积极规范渠道节奏。他表示，一切尽在掌握。 For example, in the third quarter of 2025, the core product Zhenyan No. 8 500ml will be discontinued from all channels, the management of the 520ml e-commerce channel will be optimized, and the social inventory will reach a reasonable level. The company also incorporates channel inventory into core operational KPIs to mechanically maintain channel profits and device sales health.面对行业下行压力，水井坊以“积极调整”应对近期挑战，选择将渠道健康置于规模增长之上。公司在声明中表示，将围绕“平衡基础、深化协调、融合发展”三大方向推进经营管理，通过适度控制出货节奏、优化库存结构、确保渠道资金安全，避免因短期快速增长而积累风险。 From the perspective of industrial competition, Suijingfang is still in the second stage in terms of size and scale. Competitive pressures in the semi-premium spirits industry continue to increase. This positive adjustment is interpreted in the in实业是股市竞争时代半高档白酒企业的必然选择。尽管水镜纺正在积极裁员，但其长期发展战略并没有减少。 Instead of making small investments, we will focus on brand building, product innovation and channel upgrades to ensure the momentum of the industry cycle change. In its earnings forecast, the company emphasized that it will continue to maintain ongoing investments in conbrand construction, terminal expansion, product innovation and organizational capabilities, as well as optimize cost efficiency and improve various productivity measures, in order to reflect the company’s long-term strategic development direction and create conditions for improving competitiveness after the adjustment of the industrial cycle.从产品创新来看，水井坊不断优化产品梯度。我们于2025年9月推出新产品“水井坊・井18”并实施a double-constraint strategy of “annual total + number of partners” to create product shortages.同时，我们顺应年轻化、个性化趋势，推出低度葡萄酒，拓展细分消费渠道。 Regarding channels, the company is accelerating the design of new channels. 2025年前三季度，新渠道实现销售额约5.62亿元，较上年增长71%，收入占比提升至近25%，形成传统渠道与新渠道协调发展的格局，有效拓展了市场覆盖边界。展望未来，行业分析师普遍认为，酒类行业仍将经历大幅回调，但品牌资产深厚、渠道基础雄厚、持续创新能力强的企业将最先受益于周期变化。 In its earnings forecast, Suikyobo revealed that overall, the changes in this year’s performance are mainly the result of overlapping industrial cycles and the company’s proactive adjustments.公司认为，现阶段的渠道结构和维护优化符合行业的价值回归逻辑，将为未来的不断发展奠定更坚实的基础。